Monday, September 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
On Monday we have only one indicator coming out that is worth mentioning, and that's U.S. Empire Manufacturing indicator. It is expected to read at 20. I said worth mentioning but not necessarily trading. That indicator usually comes out with other indicators so it is extremely difficult to measure how much impact it can alone have to market. Considering the situation with carry trades happening, I recommend to skip that one and just observe it. The really save trigger would be if it comes out at 40 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Such large deviation is extremely unlikely.
 
SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Empire Manufacturing indicator
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 40 or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
 
2. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Tuesday we have U.K. CPI coming out. This is definitely steaming hot indicator under current circumstances. The main one to focus one will probably be UK CPI y/y which is expected to read 1.9%. If it comes out at 2.1% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 1.7% or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We may see a relatively large deviation if it is only 0.1% deviation either direction but in order to trade 0.1% deviation, you would need take into consideration the price action right before the report. I believe that 0.2% deviation is a pretty safe trigger regardless of price action and levels before the report.
 
SUMMARY:
* Report: U.K. CPI y/y
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 2.1% or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 1.7% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
 
3. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
Then at 5 am we will have German ZEW. It is expected it will read -17. I think if it reads -30 or more negative, we may possibly see EUR/USD going down by 25 pips in the first hour of the report. If the German ZEW reads -5 or less negative, I think EUR/USD may possibly gain 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Spike trading on this one is extremely dangerous. The only way to trade it is get in after the spike, and try to get an entry within 5 pips of the pre-release price, and set a SL maybe 12 to 15 pips, and try to shoot for 15 to 20 pips profit.
 
SUMMARY:
* Report: German ZEW
* Sell on EUR/USD if the number will be -30 or more negative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -5 or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 25 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
 
4. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Next, we will have U.S. PPI coming out at 8.30 am New York time. The most important one, I think, would be PPI core m/m. It is expected to read at 0.1%. If it reads 0.4% or higher, it would match the highest reading in a while, and I think we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the PPI comes out at -2% or more negative, we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
 
SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. PPI Core m/m
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.4% or higher
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -2% or more negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
 
5. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
I suggest you to skip TIC report at 9 am.
 
6. Tuesday, September 18th, 2007 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then, we will have U.S. Interest Rate decision out of the United States. It is mostly expected that the US will cut the rate by 0.25%. If they cut the rate by 0.50%, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they hold the rate at 5.25%, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. There should be comments accommodating the statement, and comments are going to be important. Even if they are going to cut by 0.25% but some interesting comments are released, it may be a very tradable report.
 
SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Interest Rate Statement
* Buy on GBP/USD if they will cut the rate by 0.50% to 4.75%
* Sell on GBP/USD if they will hold the rate at 5.25%
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
* Watch out for comments.

FOREXGEN.COM SCAM Alert! Broker stole over $160K from our trader!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I wanted to share a very disturbing story with you... Though I can't guarantee that this is the truth, but from my investigation and my understanding it seems a very legitimate story.

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Rashid grew one of his accounts, #5011164, from $20,000 to over $110,000 over the last few months by taking a few position trades. Few days ago, he decided to cash in his profits from all his accounts with this broker, and made a withdrawal request for the full amount of over $160,000.

Forexgen started ignoring him, and put his account "under investigation". Then something miraculous happened... On October 19th, 2007 at 07:10 am EST, ForexGen.com opened a very large EUR/USD short position at 1.4056 on Rashid's account. They manually raised the spread to 247 pips, and closed the position the same minute, thus fully wiping out Rashid's account 5011164, and even putting him in the negative... Order number of the trade was #33114.

ForexGen.com was giving out their address in Manassas, Virginia for US clients. After further investigation, the address ended up being a residential address currently in foreclosure.

If you look at their website, they are promising 1 pips spread on all pairs, which is obviously extremely unrealistic and ridiculous.

I have always been warning my subscribers not to deal with small new brokerages, because I've simply seen too many of them literally raping and scamming our traders.

Please spread the word about this situation by posting this email on your favorite forum. Rob Grespi is extremely pissed off about this situation, and is helping Rashid to prepare all documents and file a complaint to the Internet Crime Prevention department of the FBI. Let's see what happens

Thanks

Friday, November 2nd, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7 a.m. New York time we will have Canadian Employment Change. It is expected to read about 12 K versus 51.1 K last month. I think if it reads 0 or negative, it would be a pretty surprising reading, and I think USD/CAD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if we see a reading of 30 K or above that would be a relatively high reading, and based on that I think USD/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. Of course, much larger deviations may cause even bigger moves.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Employment Change
* Buy on USD/CAD if the number will be 0 or negative
* Sell on USD/CAD if the number will be 30 K or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report.

2. Friday, November 2nd, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll coming out. It is expected to come out at 82 K. If it reads 120 K or more, that would be even better reading than last month, and it would signify a relatively OK employment market in the U.S., and we may see GBP/USD going down by 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. On the other hand, if it reads 40 K or below, I think based on that GBP/USD may possibly go up 50 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report because that would be bad for the U.S. dollar.

SUMMARY:
* Report: U.S. Non-Farm Payroll
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 120 K or more
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 40 K or worse
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the 30 minutes of the report.

For both of these indicators I would wait for the spike, and try to get in after the spike - probably within 15 pips of the pre-release price unless the deviation is bigger.

Happy Pipping

1. Sunday, December 16th, 2007 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7.01 p.m. New York time we will have UK Rightmove House Price Index m/m. This one is tough to trade. It is hard to say what is going to happen. I don't really thing it is terribly tradable. If you are around, you can watch this indicator. If it comes out at 2% or higher, I would expect some pound strength, and if it comes out at -2% or more negative, I would expect some pound weakness but not too much I would be willing to put a trade on.

Let's now talk about Monday.

2. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m we will have U.S. Empire State Business Conditions Index and U.S. Current Account. Because they are coming at the same time, it is hard to say which one is going to grab the market. Most likely Empire Manufactures is more important one, and usually when it is in focus by itself a deviation of 10 or 12 can be tradable but I would skip that one.

3. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions. This indicator used to work, then it did not work, and past 3 months it started working again because of very large deviations. It is expected to come out at 49 B. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I would look to sell USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 100 K or more positive, then I would buy USD/JPY. This is one of the financial health indicators so I think USD/JPY should work better on this one.

4. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (1:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 1:00 p.m. we will have U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index. This almost never move the market but if you trade on your own around a lunch time, keep an eye on it, especially if deviation is above 2.

That's pretty much all for Sunday and Monday. The only tradable indicator, I think, is the TIC.

Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 8:30 we got U.S. Retail Sales which came out better than expected. USD/JPY did not move too well because we also had a conflicting number from U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out higher by 14K. However, EUR/USD seems to be more independent from IJC, so we saw a very spike on EUR/USD. Well, trading the afterspike was another story here. Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY retraced over 100%, probably going through SL people might set up. Probably the only big winners here were Secret News Weapon users (including myself) who took advantage of the spike, especially on EUR/USD (yum!).

Then at 6:45 p.m. we had Retail Sales out of New Zealand. The headline number came out higher whereas the core number came out lower. Luckily, they did not deviate well enough to enter a trade so it was just a no trade. The price action on NZD/USD was very nasty.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, June 13th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 2:00 a.m. we will have German CPI but this is not tradable because this is a final revision so please skip it.

2. Friday, June 13th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI. It seems with today's economy higher inflation may lead the Fed to raise the interest rates so the market should be paying attention to it. I think this is safe to trade 0.1 deviation on it. I would trade U.S. CPI Core, and if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would sell EUR/USD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy EUR/USD. In any case, I would look for 40 to 50 pips of a price action. Ideally, it would be nice to not have any conflict between core and headline numbers but if you get a conflict, the core number should be more in focus but this might be a bumpy road.

That's all for Friday.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, June 30th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP which is expected to come out at 0.3%. I usually recommend trading 0.3 deviation but 0.2 deviation from last month cause a great move of 60 pips on USD/CAD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well.

2. Monday, June 30th, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:45 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI; however, some traders can get that number at 9:42 a.m. If you are not able to get it at 9:42, I would not trade it. If you are able to get that number at 9.42 a.m., I would buy USD/JPY if it comes out at 52.0; if it comes out at 44.0 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY - in either case I would look for 30 pips move.

I also encourage you to watch a special video where Sir PIps is talking about long term trading. The link is provided at the beginning of this post.

1a. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Norway CPI. I would just ignore it.

1b. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
Also at 4:00 a.m. we will have UK Halifax HPI m/m coming out which is expected to come out at -1.0%. I would trade it with 1.0 trigger. If it comes out at 0% or higher (positive), I would buy GBP/USD; if it comes out at -2.0% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD. In either case, I would expect 25 pips price action.

2. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected it they will hold the rates at 5.00%. Only 1 economist out of 49 is expecting them to raise the rates. If they raise the rates to 5.25% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and I would expect it to move at least 75 pips. If they cut the rates to 4.75% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect at least 75 pips move as well.

3. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims coming out. It is expected to come out at 395K. If it comes out at 415 K or higher, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 375K or lower, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This indicator is not as good as it used to be so be extra careful.

4. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. Bernanke will be speaking. Please watch the video if you are interested in trading it. If you are new, skip it for sure.

That's all for Thursday.